24-08-14 - Wednesday I - Riots

I like to think I'm a regular guy, but I abhor the recent riots in the UK. There is just no need for them. Or, if there is a need for them (and I think there might be), the root cause or trigger for the riots is not the basis that the rioters or the "mainstream media" think it is. 

Let me explain. 

There are people who can't get council housing. There are people who don't get swift police response when shit happens. I think a lot of people have experienced delays at hospitals and A&E departments. 

These things are not related to the (relatively) small number of people arriving on our shores "irregularly" in small boats.  

The fact that there is no social housing is attributable to the fact that there has been no investment in housing by central government. 

The reduction in police numbers and the "reprioritisation" of crimes has been attributable to the fact that there has been no investment in policing by central government. 

The delays in treatment in A&E has been attributable to the fact that there has been no investment in healthcare by central government. 

I am hoping that a change in government will change this, but actually I am very concerned by the early signals from the current Labour govt. They need to change the way they look at the economy, because if Rachel Reeves has the same approach as George Osborne, then to my mind there is no benefit in having a Labour govt. What I am hoping is that this is a moderate "don't startle the horses" beginning, before more radical policies are adopted. At least it looks like the union issues are being resolved, and speaking personally as a commuter that is a fantastic breakthrough. 

It's only been five weeks, let's wait and see, I guess?

TTFN. 

24-06-21 - Friday I - Labour Labour Labour

Well, what is there to say? Labour aren't saying much and the more they don't say anything, the more the Conservatives (and Rishi Sunak specifically) implode. 

It does seem a foregone conclusion that Labour will form the next government come July 4th and I'm not sure what more there is to say. Labour are playing a very sensible approach; "this is what we've said and this is what we meant, and we're going to say it again because it's a constant" vs a kind of unplanned, say something and see if it sticks approach from the Conservatives. So that's led to things like the "supermajority" claim, which is meaningless when you interrogate it, but also the £2k tax claim which has cut through, but on the same figures the Tories will charge you an extra *£3k* in tax. It's funny what catches the popular imagination. 

This betting thing, for instance, seems to have some weight, although I think it's just silly. It would seem poetic that the current Tory reign will finish with individuals trying to feather their own nest - and for relatively small amounts as well. Was it worth it? Probably not, on balance, I'd suggest. 

Anyway, only two weeks to go and then we'll be in Belgium watching "RAWK" (i.e., Avril Lavigne and Lenny Kravitz). 

TTFN!

22-08-17 - Wednesday I - What to Write?

I sit here, angry and despairing in equal measure. Faced with a blank page, I have no idea where to start. Prices are rising and wages are stagnant, as has been the case for the past few years, and while some people have been willing to suck it up, prices are now rising at over 10% per year, which is unpalatable to those who have seen their disposable income being whittled away over the previous years, albeit at a slower rate. 

I realise that the prices are rising due to the war in Ukraine, but we could have taken steps in the last 12 years to ensure that the UK has a robust economy. Instead it feels like we've been hollowing it out, so that it looks fine from the outside, but at the first gust of unexpected global headwinds it collapses. The number of trades unions waking up to the fact that they are providing their labour and expertise for basically the same price as they did five years ago, despite the fact that their wages don't buy the same amount these days appears to be growing exponentially, and they are all deciding to strike. 

I'm not a member of a union, but normally wage discussions are ongoing when I get my annual settlement, and I have in the past been awarded what a union might refer to as "a derisory pay increase". As it is, I do (and have done) okay. But I can see why these guys are upset, and I can see why things are coming to a head now. So fair play and good luck to them. 

I guess the TL:DR point of this is that the UK economy is screwed (putting it politely) and currently I can't see any solution - certainly the solution isn't called Truss or Sunak. 

TTFN. 

22-07-10 - Sunday I - Interesting Times

Well, that was quite the week. The PM stood down, there was #JohnsonWatch on Twitter (that was my hashtag, picked up by absolutely nobody), and now the leadership candidates are beginning to emerge. It's quite entertaining to watch, but unfortunately we all know it's going to end horribly, with one of them in the position of Prime Minister. I long for a period of uncontroversial government, with some joined up thinking and maybe some long-term planning thrown in, but somehow I don't think that's what we're going to get. So what else is there to do but laugh as it all goes pear-shaped to an even greater degree than we ever thought possible? 

This current lot have been in power for the last twelve years; they are the "natural party of government", apparently, and yet they keep screwing up. I despair sometimes. I crave boring politics; as David Allen Green says regularly, constitutional politics should be boring, and I feel the same about UK domestic politics in general: we should be able to predict what our MPs will do in any given circumstance, and outcomes should be expected and dull. But unfortunately that hasn't been the case since Brexit. 

Cameron, when he was first elected, seemed quite sensible. Unfortunately Osborne implemented a policy of austerity which didn't work out how they expected it to work out, and certainly those who needed looking after weren't looked after, but it does seem that the candidates for the PM role are all promising Austerity #2. It's a shame that the party don't want to elect someone with broader appeal who might be able to build a consensus. So we'll have to enjoy the bits we can laugh at, and try to ignore the wider emerging horror. 

TTFN. 

21-06-20 Sunday - Chesham and Amersham By-Election

I thought it was probably worth noting that in the by-election this week in Chesham and Amersham (that is one combined constituency), the Lib Dems won unexpectedly. Or, they won *massively*, unexpectedly. The Lib Dems took over 50% of the turnout, which admittedly was low, I think it was 52%, but that is standard for a by-election.

A couple of things: 

1. I won £20 off of Paddy Power by backing the Lib Dems at 8/1. I only bet £2.50, I'm a bit disappointed I didn't put more on now. But I could afford to lose £2.50. I only put that bet on on Tuesday, it seems even the bookies weren't expecting the Lib Dems to do so well. 

2. This is only one data point, but it is interesting. There is another by-election in Batley and Spen in a couple of weeks, and the Conservatives are expected to win there as well; it'll be interesting to see if they can accomplish that. It will be interesting to see whether the Chesham and Amersham result has any impact on the Batley vote. 

3. The acceptance tweet by the Conservative candidate was particularly ungracious: he tweeted that he was "disappointed" that the voters didn't vote for him, and he also remarked that the election had been held under "extraordinary circumstances". This links to something else I want to cover, but I'll mention that later. If the Conservatives want to dismiss this as a one-off that won't be repeated, without any reflection or analysis, they may be doomed to suffer similar results?

4. Part of the Hartlepool result was explained by commentators as voters thinking that by voting Conservative they may get the ear of the government. I think the vote in Chesham disproves that theory. It's been said that a lot of Labour voters voted for the Lib Dem candidate, and I guess the Conservative voters must've largely stayed at home. But by showing that other parties can win, it gives hope, I think, to other campaigners in other constituencies. Will this, for example, encourage Labour to redouble their efforts in Batley and Spen?

5. Please no more political "jokes" like Ed Davey knocking down an actual blue wall with an orange hammer. That is cringeworthy and on a par with the "Ed Stone" and Johnson knocking through a wall on a JCB. 

Overall it's nice to see that the Conservative vice-like grip on the UK electorate doesn't seem as vice-like as maybe it did at first glance. Hopefully this is the first of several progressive successful results. 

The other thing I wanted to mention, which goes back to point 3, is the defection of John Bercow to Labour. If the Conservative party were truly an inclusive "one nation" party, that wouldn't have been necessary. But I fear that the Conservative party and government are becoming increasingly one-eyed and narrow in outlook. The reaction to Bercow's defection from an official party spokesperson was that Labour were "welcome to him".

If you don't want to engage with others who have different viewpoints, even if those viewpoints are close to yours, I don't see how you can expect to persuade people around to your point of view. And that feeds into a wider point, I think, which is that Johnson and his government are not subtle. They currently rely on overwhelming other perspectives, or ignoring them altogether. Since Bercow hasn't signed up to "the project" (I'm not quite sure what "the project" is at this stage), his support isn't required. He was a Conservative MP for a number of years, he had been out there beating the drum for the Conservatives, and yet all that hard work is dismissed in one phrase; Labour are "welcome to him". 

I don't think that kind of reaction is going to garner loyalty to the party. But we'll see. And maybe the Batley and Spen by-election will provide some more information about what is going on in the country. Let's see. 

TTFN. 

21-04-02 Friday Covid-19 Day 384 I - Projection

Gosh, it's been a while. A lot has happened, but then not a lot has happened. Touch typing is not going as well as I'd hoped, although we're getting there slowly. 

I wanted to note that in the culture wars there is a lot of projection going on. Others have noted the same, that sometimes people do things specifically "to own the libs". For example, I was surprised last year (but on the other hand I wasn't surprised) to read that Priti Patel was boasting about how the "left were going to have a meltdown" over proposed changes to asylum legislation. This kind of attitude leads to divisive politics, at a time when the need for unity and coming together is stronger than ever. We need an inclusive approach to the way forward. The Conservatives have been in power for over ten years now, and before that Labour implemented policies which the Conservatives agreed with.

(By the way, an ironic note: having binned off Sure Start when they came to power, the Conservatives are now proposing to reintroduce it, although in a much less helpful way) 

Much more common are the tweets and references which demonstrate that the "left" are living rent-free in the heads of those on the right, tweets like this: 

I suppose those on the left do this as well, but I don't see it to the same extent. Maybe I am a victim of unconscious bias, I don't know, but the right are in positions of power. They run the government, they run the newspapers, and they tend to dismiss concerns, when they are raised, which don't fit their narrative. So why these people are even bothered about what their political opponents think or feel is beyond me. And I think they think people are more "wound up" about things than they actually are. 

I'm getting a little tired of the culture wars, tbh. And I think that the longer they go on, those making such a fuss about these things can only lose. 

TTFN. 

21-01-23 Saturday Covid-19 Day 315 I - "Paradigm Shift"

Well, that resolution (to blog more frequently) didn't even last a week. Maybe I should hang my head in shame. Maybe anyone who reads this is breathing a sigh of relief. Who knows? 

I thought it might be worth commemorating the fact that we have a new president in the U.S. Now we can refer to "President Biden" rather than "President-Elect Biden". I listened to a bit of his inauguration speech on the day; it sounded pretty good. The sort of stuff you would expect a normal, standard politician to say. I think he's got a pretty big job on his hands (hurr hurr, not *that* kind of job) to reunite the U.S., considering that over 70 million people voted for Trump. He is going to have to show that he is listening to their concerns as well, and working for the benefit of the U.S. as a whole. 

There were two interesting things coming out of the transfer of power in the U.S., or at least they are interesting to me. One is the QAnon conspiracy cult; apparently they mostly believed that the Biden inauguration would be the trigger for a mass national rebellion. According to message boards and other sources people were stockpiling water, ensuring their generators were in working order, etc., because they thought this was going to be "the big one". It seems that a lot of people are now disappointed, and I would hope disillusioned as well. Maybe "disillusioned" is the wrong word; maybe I mean disabused of their fantasies. Hopefully the country can come together on a common set of facts which they agree on, and go forward from there. There will always be disagreement about the best way to progress, but if you can at least agree *where you are*, that is a start for dialogue. And maybe we can get to the same situation here in the UK regarding Brexit, at some stage in the future. 

The other interesting thing is the Winston Churchill bust rebuttal video. A number of right wing commentators in the UK have been up in arms about the fact that Biden has moved the bust of Churchill out of the Oval Office and replaced it with a bust of Cesar Chavez. So the White House admin have released a video stating that it is "just a bust" and it doesn't affect the "special relationship" between the U.S. and the UK. This is quite a good move, I think. Firstly, it is an acknowledgement that some people have concerns (whether those are legitimate or not). Secondly, it addresses those concerns in a lighthearted (I think) way. Thirdly, it shows that they are listening. Fourthly, it cuts off thoses who are agitating against the new administration. Maybe "agitating" is the wrong word, again. But clearly there are some people who preferred Trump in charge, and they are focusing on this change of bust as a signifier of the regime change. If Biden can move this bust out of the Oval Office, and disrespect the UK like this, what else is he going to change? This video minimises the bust issue. It focuses instead on the past relationships between the leaders of the U.S. and the UK, as well as the security and economic interests shared by the two countries. The bust? It's just a bust. 

I think a lot of people are hoping for four years of boring, pragmatic politics coming out of the U.S. If they can include a video like this every once in a while, so much the better. 

TTFN.

20-11-21 Saturday Covid-19 Day 252 - Priti Patel and Bullying

Well, well, well. The first news wasn't good, was it? Patel was found to have breached the ministerial code, possibly unintentionally. It would be strange if she didn't know the ministerial code, since she's already been sacked for breaching it. But there you go, strange things do happen, that'll be why the word "strange"exists. 

Then her claim, or someone's claim, that she was "unaware of her behaviour" was contradicted by Sir Philip Rutnam. He came forward to state that she had been told previously that she shouldn't shout and swear at staff. 

Then she apologised in a way that seemed non-apologetic. She claimed she was doing a challenging job, and she didn't set out to upset anyone. The claim is that she shouted and swore at staff; I'm not sure that (in general) one does that, if one doesn't want to upset the people one is addressing. But then, I'm not Priti Patel. 

At the same time, our PM and No. 10 continued to claim that Patel *hadn't* breached the ministerial code. 

The independent advisor to the PM on ministerial standards, Sir Alex Allan, resigned. I can understand that; if your primary function is to report on ministerial standards, and your report on ministerial standards is ignored, then what would be the point in reporting on ministerial standards?

Then it became apparent that Johnson tried to water down the report, adding further levels of intrigue and complexity to the whole farrago. 

It is clear that if you support Johnson, he is loyal to you; Cummings managed his whole Barnard Castle episode without getting the sack. Now Patel has broken the ministerial code and hasn't got the sack. She broke the code on the issue of bullying, which the PM has said he won't tolerate - yet Patel remains in post. 

It's almost like Johnson's words and actions don't agree. And maybe that is why watching this government gives me a headache; because the contradiction between what they say they are going to do and what they actually do is so obvious, but it gets called out so rarely. 

This also marks a fall in standards in public office; if Patel was sacked three years ago for breaking the ministerial code, but she isn't sacked in 2020 for the same offence, then things have materially changed. Is the ministerial code worth anything at all these days, if the PM can judge that it doesn't apply? 

It's a tiring affair, that's for sure.

TTFN. 

20-11-15 Monday Covid-19 Day 247 - ex-President Trump and ex-SpAd Cummings

Has it been that long? I was intending to add an entry sooner, but life gets in the way sometimes; I'm sure you know how it is. 

So, Biden won the Presidential election. That's some good news I guess. There are a couple of things which I think are interesting which have come out of that.

The first is that suddenly the media are picking up on Trump's inability to accept objective reality, i.e., defeat. On a couple of occasions TV networks cut away from live Trump speeches on the basis that they weren't factual. It might be a worthwhile exercise to revisit some of his previous speeches that they *didn't* cut away from, and check that they were more truthful than his current speeches; my expectation is that they will be riddled with as many factual inaccuracies as his current batch of waffle. Then it might be worth looking at what they can do to ensure that if in future other presidents try to get away with lying, they call that out immediately / while the speaker is speaking. I do think there needs to be more truth in politics, and it is unacceptable that politicians can't be held to account in law for claims they make during election campaigns.

The other thing to note is that although Biden has won the election, over 70 million U.S. citizens voted for Trump. A lot of that might be due to the "rosette effect", i.e., some people will always vote Republican no matter who the candidate is, but when you consider Trump's character and the things he's been accused of, that is a worry.

On this side of the Atlantic, it seems as though our PM Boris Johnson has sacked his Special Advisor, Dominic Cummings. I think the media are making more of this than they need to, but Cummings has been a bogeyman for some time, not just for those on the left or anti-govt. groups, but even backbench Tories who aren't part of the inner circle of government. Cummings was seen as the brains behind Vote Leave, and -more recently- managed to break the lockdown restrictions and get away with it, by offering some elaborately concocted excuse which sounded to many like a lie. There is footage of him leaving by the front door on Friday evening (13th Nov) with a box full of his belongings, which has unfortunate echoes of the time he was filmed running from No. 10, an event which later became part of his lockdown excuse narrative. 

If anything, it means that he won't be held responsible for any adverse events which occur after 1st Jan 2021, when the Brexit transition period ends. This is the man, remember, who was held in contempt of Parliament because he refused to attend an enquiry. I can't see him changing his attitude any time soon. 

Anyway, I don't see that a change in personnel advising the PM at this stage helps. Certain MPs and media heads have talked about the possibility of a "reset" and a change in approach to government, but I think they are being overly-optimistic about the ability of those currently in government. You've got to remember that all current ministers were appointed on the basis that they are rabidly pro-Brexit, and they might not be very capable or aware of other issues. 

We've got less than a month and a half until the transition period ends, and still we don't know if there is going to be a deal or not. My expectation is that there won't be a deal, although several people more knowledgeable in these things think there will be. If I could bet on "No Deal", I certainly would, but I can't see any bookies offering odds on it. 

I'm not sure that these developments are going to make anything better in the long run. And I'm pretty pessimistic about 2021. You thought 2020 was bad? Next year could be worse. Hopefully, though, we'll have a vaccine for this coronavirus. That'll be something. 

TTFN.

20-10-26 Monday Covid-19 Day 227 - Free School Meals

I suppose this has been the biggest issue last week, and it's still rumbling on, so it's worth writing a couple of words on. The government have again made themselves look to be the bad guys, by voting down an Opposition motion to extend free school meals during the half-terms and holidays until Easter 2021. 

I guess the motion may have been politically motivated, but malnourished kids have been a concern for a while now, even before this cursed pandemic. It's all well and good to give kids a hot meal at school, but what happens at the weekends, and during school holidays? The fact that kids need a free meal scheme *at all* kind of highlights the fact that people don't have enough money to live on, in my mind. 

So, Labour used their Opposition Day debate to discuss the possibility of extending the free school meal program during this half-term and over Christmas. As I understand it, the government told the Conservative party MPs to vote against the motion. This is standard; after all, who wants to see the Opposition come up with a good idea? The trouble was, though, that on this occasion the motion was supported by Marcus Rashford, which meant that a lot more people than usual were interested in the stuffy, dry proceedings of the House of Commons. And when the Conservatives voted down the motion with their 80 seat majority, there was quite widespread public reaction. 

Normally there might be a bit of argy-bargy on Twitter, with a few people sounding off, but this reached out further than that to Facebook and even the political journalists like Beth Rigby for instance picked up on it. Lots of businesses started offering free meals to local kids in need, and Marcus Rashford started retweeting all the offers he was made aware of. It was quite awe-inspiring to read his Twitter timeline on Friday morning. 

MPs and Tory backers tried to support the government position, unsuccessfully. Ben Bradshaw and Marcus Fysh in particular were pilloried for holding unpopular (and possibly incorrect) opinions. 

The one fly in the ointment which maybe soured the moment was Angela Rayner allegedly calling one of her Tory MP colleagues "scum". If it hadn't been for that, it would have been a brilliantly-executed and flawless PR move. As it is, people have dismissed the complaints from the Tory MPs, comparing a bit of name-calling to child poverty and hunger. I can empathise though with Rayner's frustration. With a majority of eighty, the government can vote through any legislation it likes, and being in opposition must feel like being an ineffective bystander sometimes. 

Anyway, add this to the exams fiasco earlier in the year, and the ongoing scandal over PPE contracts, and I get the sense that this government isn't as good at handling issues as it likes to think it is. The general election was less than a year ago; has any government in recent history made as many missteps as this current government? And remember, this is likely to continue until 2024, thanks to the Fixed Term Parliament Act. I can't see Johnson going for an early election. But that will mean more time in power, and more opportunities to err further. 

At least we've got something to look forward to, eh?
TTFN.  

20-10-18 Sunday Covid-19 Day 219 - Shouting Into The Void

Friday was an interesting day, news-wise.

Not only was our government giving a masterclass in failure on the international stage, they were showing how to fail domestically as well.

Internationally, Brexit still rumbles on. And the UK government advised that there was “no point” in Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, travelling to London on Monday to resume negotiations unless Europe fundamentally changed its position. The government have only had four years to resolve this. It seems to me that the EU have had a consistent negotiating line during that time, and the UK govt. should have had enough time to probe that stance and come up with a solution which would be acceptable to both sides.

I think the issue is that for forty years we have seen the EU as "dictating" to us; or at least, some have seen that. Rules and frameworks have been agreed at the European Union level, and then imposed on the members. However, we are part of the group deciding those laws and regulations. So those rules and regulations can be said to be self-imposed. 

Another part of those laws and regulations are a result of international trade talks and WTO decrees, filtered through the EU. Our nation's leaders think that by leaving the EU we will not have those rules imposed on us. But we will find out, I think, that those rules and laws will be imposed on us anyway. We will simply have removed the EU from the process. What will be missing are the benefits of being in the EU, e.g., Erasmus, tariff-free trade, and E111s. 

Anyway, it seems that our PM Johnson has had enough and won't be pursuing talks unless the EU changes their position. And the EU, from their perspective, advise that actually the UK are trying to agree more than a Canada-style FTA and aren't prepared to sign up to the framework within which a Canada+ deal is available. 

I think the only thing we can do now, apart from shake our heads in despair, is to buy a fifth can of soup or baked beans every time we buy four, and put that fifth can aside in case of shortages come 1st January. With the Road Hauliers' Association suggesting that a No Deal could be disastrous, I think a few precautions are sensible; I really fear that shortages may occur. 

The other issue the government are currently facing is a domestic one, in that Northern councils (e.g. in Liverpool and Manchester) are refusing to agree to the guidelines and regulations which the govt. are trying to impose. It's a serious matter, deciding whether an area goes into Tier 1 or Tier 2, but seeing the levels of disagreement (and I think we're not seeing the full extent of that disagreement) is quite salacious and distracting. 

It's strange to think that the last general election was less than a year ago. Despite the fact that this current government has tried to dissociate itself from the previous regime, it's impossible to deny that the Conservatives have been in power (initially in coalition, and then solo since 2015) since 2010. And maybe that's part of it; despite the fact that Johnson and his cabinet present themselves as something new, the faces have been around for quite some time. I think we're getting tired of the lot of them as a nation, but that might be just me. Certainly the polls suggest that the Conservatives still command a large degree of support throughout the country, which is a puzzle to me.  I can't remember a time previously where so many issues have been mishandled in the first year of a government. The "honeymoon period" is well and truly over, that's for sure. 

Anyway, that's enough for today. 
TTFN. 

20-10-09 Friday Covid-19 Day 211 - Six Month Anniversary

We've been doing this for over six months now. Doesn't the time fly when you're having fun?

I've been staying at home much more than I ever did before this whole thing started; I could probably count on the fingers of one hand how many times I leave the house on a weekly basis. However, my three kids are going to school each day and mixing with more than 700 other children, who also have brothers and sisters at other schools. 

Numbers started going up at about the same time that schools restarted, and I think there is a link. I *know* that children aren't affected as much by the virus, and they're not as symptomatic, but I think that school is a massive vector through which the virus can spread, even if the carriers are not affected themselves.

The number of infections in those areas in the North in lockdown have increased tenfold despite the lockdown measures, so the lockdowns are clearly ineffective. But what isn't included in those lockdown measures? School closures. 

The number of new covid cases was in excess of 17,000 yesterday. Reports say that hospital admissions are reaching the same kind of levels that we saw prior to the first national lockdown in March. How long will it be before calls for a second national lockdown start to get louder?

I see Allegra Stratton has been selected to lead the govt.'s daily press briefings. She is well-placed to communicate their policies and progress, being Rishi Sunak's spin doctor and also married to James Forsyth, the editor of the Spectator. She's obviously very well-connected within Conservative circles. But I hope she has bags of stamina as she will have to be explaining the govt.'s incompetence and ineptitude on a daily basis. She'll be well-paid, fair enough, but I don't envy what she'll have to be doing.

TTFN.

#nowreading: How To Be A Liberal - Ian Dunt

20-07-16 Tuesday - Covid-19 Day #127 - Russia Report Day and ISC Shenanigans

So it seems we just don't really care? The government have been briefing for a couple of days now that there was attempted Russian interference in UK politics, and I think that has blunted the release of today's report somewhat. It might be worth reading back issues of Private Eye though; they have thoroughly documented how successive UK governments have sold UK citizenship to the highest bidders, and accepted large donations from Russian oligarchs. 

Why worry about espionage and surreptitious attempts to influence when actually it's being done out in the open? Ah well. Maybe we'll learn from this, maybe we'll have another inquiry. My betting is that nothing will happen, and the "executive" will charge on regardless. 

The report wouldn't have come out so soon, I expect, if Julian Lewis hadn't been elected as chair of the ISC. That was a fun event from last week, and may end up having a longer-lasting impact than the release of the Russia Report. Imagine scheming with the opposition so that Chris Grayling didn't get the shoo-in post he was promised? The fact that Lewis lost the Tory whip obviously gives the lie to the pretence that the appointment of the chair is an independent process. But once I realised who Lewis was, I also realised that there are pretty much none more Tory than him.

I can't really imagine anything guaranteed to be more annoying than a Parliamentary committee conspiring to elect someone else to be the committee chair and that someone else also be a loyal Tory - just not the one that No. 10 had selected. Ah well. Such are the fun events that go on in the House of Commons and its environs. Now that Parliament is about to rise for their summer break, how will we keep ourselves entertained? 
TTFN. 

20-05-16 - Covid-19 Day #61 - I - Government Twitter

I noticed a thing yesterday – that the government, or the civil service, have descended into the fray on Twitter to dispute claims about the way the Covid-19 debacle has been handled.

I think the fact that the govt. have decided to issue rebuttals and publish them on Twitter is a bad thing for a couple of reasons:

• By publishing a rebuttal to a news article in which the DHSC had a right of response, the govt. are starting a precedent. In the future, if they don’t publish a rebuttal, can we take it that the article is correct?
• Twitter is an egalitarian platform – meaning that if someone puts across a point of view, anyone can dispute that. Occasionally people quote their sources, but not always, and Twitter can be a very argumentative place where it is difficult to establish veracity
• The rebuttals that the DHSC (Department of Health and Social Care, under the Twitter handle @DHSC) have not really rebutted the articles; in fact, they have confirmed that the main claims are indeed true.

The first “rebuttal” I saw from @DHSC linked to this press release. Unfortunately, the release confirms most of the claims that the article in the Guardian made, i.e., that the army did help distribute stocks of PPE; that Movianto did store PPE temporarily in a smoke-damaged warehouse containing asbestos dust; that stock was stored in the aisles (albeit temporarily).
To my mind, publishing a link to this rebuttal on Twitter is almost inviting jeering and questioning, especially when the rebuttal is of such a questionable quality.

The second “rebuttal” was in response to an article in The Mirror which claimed that the NHS app collected care workers’ data for marketing and ads.
The DHSC, from the same Twitter account (@DHSC) responded that this claim was “factually wrong”, but of course this gave the right of reply to the Mirror journalists who responded: “The story is not factually wrong. The firm changed their privacy policy today, after we approached them for comment. Also, users of the app have been sent marketing materials over email. I enclose a screenshot.”

There is a third story involving Jen Williams and the Manchester Evening News here, and the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government (tweeting from the account @mhclg), where it seems that someone in an official capacity has yet again taken umbrage at what journalists are reporting.

Because of the way Twitter is set up, this looks like a discussion among equals, and each participant in the conversation can be given the same levels of respect and credibility. But it does seem that the rebuttals issued by the government either don’t rebut the claims they are intended to, or they can be quickly disproven.

From my perspective, it seems as though the government have indulged in a pointless attempt to steer the narrative around to their benefit, and it seems as though they have failed utterly. There is a phenomenon known as the Streisand Effect, where attempting to censor something can ensure it is discussed more widely. The govt. could have kept quiet in all three of these areas and attempted to appear above it all, but they chose instead to get down and dirty, and have thereby contaminated themselves.

Currently it seems the score is 3-0 to the journalists. Still, tomorrow’s another day, eh?

TTFN.

20-04-07 Tuesday - Covid-19 Day #22 - Johnson in Hospital

Well, this is weird. Boris Johnson has been admitted to hospital and in Intensive Care, “just in case”. We heard the news on Sunday evening, halfway through the film we were watching (Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2). I didn’t sleep well at all on Sunday night, I think the news affected me more than I expected. I’m no fan of Boris Johnson, but no-one should be in hospital suffering from this awful disease.

The prior event which drove home what a big event this is was the news that U.S. comics weren’t going to be imported into the UK for a while. That impressed on me the scale of the issue at the time. Now this is another instance which has thrown me off-balance.

It can sometimes be difficult to separate the man from the politics, but if you asked me if I wanted anyone to be in hospital suffering from Covid-19 and finding it hard to breathe, I would say no immediately. No-one deserves that. Hopefully he’ll recover, but it may take some time – possibly weeks.

Time to pivot to another leader, Donald Trump. I did see he averred that he wouldn’t wear a mask, despite the fact that this was now recommended. Trump is well-known to be a germophobe and I reckon he would be the first to wear a mask, given the chance. It’s not like he’s going to be meeting other heads of state either; surely they’re all in lockdown as well?

Anyway, that’s enough for now.

TTFN.

19-10-30 Wednesday I - General Election 2019

So, finally the dam of pent-up energy has burst, and the House of Commons has voted for a General Election. It’s been a while coming, and a number of observers predicted it would happen earlier than this. The Lib Dems and the SNP had finally realised that there was no way to get a second referendum in this session of Parliament, and so they have voted to start over. Johnson (the PM) wants an election because he thinks he can get a majority for Brexit (as did Theresa May before him), and Labour always seem to be in campaign mode, although they weren’t exactly chomping at the bit to get into this race.

The date of the election is set to be 12th December. This is regarded as a “snap election”, because the time for campaigning is comparatively short, but I can guarantee that by the 11th of December it will feel like the election has been the only topic of conversation for *years*.

A relatively uncontroversial opinion is that the Lib Dems will pick up a few seats; that’s to be expected, as the Conservatives have been in power now since 2010 (in a coalition to begin with, and then with sole responsibility for governing since 2015) and people like a change from time to time. The SNP may also pick up a couple of seats in Scotland as well, we’ll have to wait and see. I think the Tories may lose a seat or two to the Brexit Party, but I think losses will be limited.

It is interesting that this was one of the main stories published today. Picked up on Radio 4, and repeated on the hourly bulletins. Matt Hancock was also given a roasting by Nick Robinson; asked if he would apologise for not getting us out of the EU by tomorrow (!), quizzed over the whereabouts of the promised social care policy, accused of issuing statements which later turned out to be untrue... The language over the last couple of weeks in the House has been heavily focused on the lack of trust MPs have in Johnson, and I’m sure this will filter through to the media.

Also, because we haven’t had a referendum, this Election will serve as a proxy for a second referendum. Labour’s policy has, I think, been clarified at the perfect time: vote for us and get a second referendum. This is a battle cry that both Remainers and Quitters can get behind. I wouldn’t be surprised if this is an effective campaign message for them.

In Worthing, our sitting Conservative MP had a majority of 12,000 in the 2017 Election. I wouldn’t be surprised if that is vastly reduced, but I expect he will be returned to Parliament after the December vote. He might find himself in a party of reduced numbers though. This is going to be interesting.

TTFN.

19-07-26 A Note on the Appointment of B Johnson as Our Prime Minister

In these most desperate of times, it is the small things that are reassuring. A good cup of tea is not affected by a change in occupancy in Downing Street.





And when that cup of tea is served in a favourite mug, brewed strong and milky, with a couple of sweeteners, one could almost believe that there was nothing wrong with the world.

Unfortunately, that is not the case. Johnson is now our Prime Minister, a man who failed as Foreign Secretary, causing more harm to Nazanin Zagari-Ratcliffe. He discussed beating up a journalist with a friend. He was described as a “nasty piece of work” by a BBC journalist, completely correctly in my view. And now this man is our Prime Minister.

That might be enough to make your heart sink, but wait, there’s more....

He has taken it upon himself to appoint Priti Patel as Home Secretary. Priti was previously dismissed by Theresa May for seemingly making up foreign policy on the hoof and not informing the Foreign Office. There is another issue brewing about a possible breach of the ministerial code, but yet here we are, with a Home Secretary who was openly supporting the return of the death sentence just a few years ago.

You might think the Home Secretary appointment was bad, but he has appointed Dominic Raab as Foreign Secretary. Raab doesn’t even understand the importance of towns in his own country, i.e. Dover, let alone (I imagine) the geo-political machinations going on beyond our borders. He tweeted yesterday “Thanks, beautiful!” to a fellow Foreign Minister:





The man is a dunderhead of the highest order, and B Johnson has decided he is fit to represent the UK abroad? That is some serious misjudgement. I’m sure that Raab is a lovely, personable fellow, but if he can’t get the detail right, we’re likely to end up with another Zagari-Ratcliffe scenario.

And then there are the special advisors, the SpAds. Dominic Cummings, who has been held in contempt of Parliament earlier this year. He was also involved in running Vote Leave, found guilty of overspending in the Brexit Referendum. And Chloe Westley, previously of the Tax Payers’ Alliance and Vote Leave, is now appointed by Johnson as a (if not *the only*) “digital advisor”.

I think the government has taken a massive swing to the right, although I think that Johnson himself is more socially liberal than his appointments suggest. But if you surround yourself with reactionaries and illiberals, that is going to rub off sooner or later.

I don’t particularly think Johnson’s thoughtless scribblings for the Telegraph prove that he is a racist, but they certainly bring his views into question. I think, much as Danny Baker was recently sacked by the BBC, he creates a picture and doesn’t self-edit or think it through. Hence his writings are littered with phrases and allusions which can be construed as offensive.

I thought his speech on the steps of Downing Street wasn’t too bad, but then I didn’t think Theresa May’s speech was too bad either - it just wasn’t backed up by any matching actions - and that is my concern for Johnson’s premiership. Warm words butter no parsnips, and if he doesn’t implement inclusive policies, then I can see the country becoming more divided. I can certainly see us leaving the EU on 31st October without a deal - if you surround yourself with people who don’t care whether we leave with a deal or not, then leaving without a deal suddenly isn’t important. The question is whether Parliament can do anything to stop that now, and my hunch - given that they have had several opportunities and not taken them - is that they won’t. The fact that I might finally win a bet (oh last of the Big Spenders) is cold comfort:




Still, until then, I’ve got my cup of tea, right?
TTFN.

19-06-11 Tuesday - Tory Leadership Race

Oh, God. The Tory leadership race is on, and it is not going well. There are no candidates I would like to see ascend to the throne of Tory leader and Prime Minister. It is existentially depressing; possibly moreso than Brexit itself.

There are ten people willing to step into Theresa May’s shoes, seemingly unaware that the situation and the maths hasn’t changed. There is no way to bend the EU to the will of the UK; the EU will protect the single market and the customs union before giving any ground to the UK. So the only avenue open to us, if we still want to leave, is to agree to the Withdrawal Agreement which has been negotiated under the reign of one T. May. The question is:- will a change of leader persuade any MPs who haven’t yet voted for the WA to change their mind? I think it unlikely.

I was happy to see Cameron take over leadership of the Tory party back when he did, he looked like a breath of fresh air. And, for a time, I think he was. So I am not against the Tory party in toto. But to be frank, I think at the moment they are a busted flush; they are in a minority, they are trying to push Brexit through an unwilling House of Commons, and the new leadership candidates are making promises they won’t be able to keep in the divided situation they will find themselves in, once they are installed in No. 10.

I for one am disappointed that the new PM will be appointed by 160,000 or so Tory voters. I know that those are the party rules, but I don’t see that the new PM will be able to go on for any time without provoking a vote of No Confidence, which will trigger a General Election. And, as the candidates themselves have mostly acknowledged, if they go to the country before completing Brexit, they will be annihilated. Voters on the right who think they are not enacting Brexit correctly will drift to the Brexit Party, and voters in the centre who are anti-Brexit will vote Lib Dem, leaving the Tory party with only a thin slice of the electorate thinking that they are doing the right thing. Not that the Labour party will do any better. A recent poll shows that Theresa May, even though she is leaving in disgrace (pretty much) is still seen as a better PM than Jeremy Corbyn.

Anyway, there aren’t any rays of light among the leadership runners and riders. The only possible reason to be optimistic is that we might see some infighting among them. And if they tear strips off each other, then they can only damage themselves and harm their credibility in the eyes of the public. So there is that.

Anyway, I don’t know if this competition will go the distance, but it’s gripping, and I’ll be watching til the end.

TTFN.

18-09-29 Saturday - Any Questions

Two weeks ago Any Questions came to Worthing. TW knew about it in August, I’m sure one of her Facebook friends told her, and she let me know, and I booked a ticket. It was at Worthing College on Friday 14th September, which was nice. 

As part of the ticket reservation process, they ask you to submit a question or questions, since it is the audience who make the show. I had a question in mind, but when I put it to TW she couldn’t follow it, so I knew I needed to make it more succinct. It wasn’t as though my question was going to be read out on national radio, though – that would be silly thinking.  

Anyway, the week of the broadcast came, and I realised I needed to submit my question, so I did. I think I'd been subconsciously considering it, because when I concentrated on it, I was quite pleased with the brevity of the question, considering its complexity. So I’d put that to one side, and the main thing then was to attend the broadcast and enjoy the political to-and-fro. 

On the Friday night itself, on the way home from Brighton to Worthing, I caught the London train from Hove to Worthing, and happened to be in the same carriage as two of the guests, Bernard Jenkin and Wera Hobhouse, which I took as some kind of omen. Well, whether it was an omen or whether I was just starstruck, I’m not sure, but it was certainly notable.  

The other members of the panel were Lord Andrew Adonis and Sherelle Jacobs. 

Later that evening, I arrived at the college and settled in for the show. As expected, there was a bit of a pre-show warm-up, which consisted of the production team “geeing us up” with stories of other shows and encouraging us to participate vocally – since, naturally, we were going to be on the radio.  

Then they got to about 7:50pm, ten minutes before the show, and they called out the people who would be asking the questions. There was an empty row at the front of the room, which I thought might have been reserved for “local dignitaries”, but actually the row had been reserved for the questioners. The production team called out a number of people and I thought that my chance had faded, but then they called my name! I was number 8 in the row of questioners, and I thought it unlikely that I would get to ask my question on-air. I listen to Any Questions, and they rarely get through as many as eight questions... Never mind though, at least I would get to sit on the front row, and get a clear view of the panel.  

The first couple of questions were unrelated to Brexit, but then inevitably the questioning turned to Brexit. I believe it was the third question which was asked. Someone mentioned something about trade deals, and I thought “ooh, my question might run on nicely from that”, and then Jonathan Dimbleby said, “On that point, let’s take the question from Rob Thorley. Rob Thorley?” It took the Production Assistant a moment or two to find me, because the question was being asked out of order, but I did get to post my question: given the number of trade deals we currently enjoy as part of the EU, how long will it take to get back to where we are now, once we’ve left next March?  

Sherelle conceded that it would take some time, Bernard Jenkin said we’d see benefits of leaving within months, and Lord Adonis made the point that next March we won’t be party to the existing EU trade deals any longer. And of course, Wera sided with Lord Adonis. I got the answers I was expecting and the answers that I wanted. And I got to be on Radio 4! How exciting! I think it was the most controversial question of the evening, but then of course, I would say that, wouldn’t I? 

TTFN. 

Saturday 18-02-10 I Brexit, an itch I can't scratch

I read with interest today that the EU are beginning to decide what Brexit will look like. It is unsurprising that someone has stepped into the void where British leadership should be, but I guess someone had to.

The current Brexit planning seems to want no hard border with Ireland, but also no customs union. I think the two things are irreconcilable, and I’m not quite sure what Theresa May / David Davis are aiming for. Unless they are trying to scupper the whole shebang, maybe?

Michel Barnier said that the Brits are going to have to make some decisions, and quickly, if they want to get everything nailed down by the self-imposed March deadline. Now, he is saying that if the disagreements are not resolved, any transition period could be in doubt.

This is the issue though; the UK are throwing out some “blue sky” thinking, and desperately hoping that something sticks. The position papers they published last year were sent out into a vacuum, nor were they properly assessed or tested by analysts. Now, I expect, the negotiators are getting to the hard end of it, and the question should be “how will that work, precisely?”. But it seems that Davis and his team think that their function has been fulfilled – “we’ve given you a proposal, now make it work”.

Every time I hear a Brexity spokesman on the radio, they suggest that we will be out of the customs union, but we still want free trade with the EU countries. “We don’t want to impose tariffs on their goods, and we don’t see why they would want to impose tariffs on ours”, they say. Unfortunately, that isn’t how trade works; if we are outside the EU, then we will be subject to tariffs; this is the way it has to be, because the EU needs to treat all trading partners the same. If they don’t impose tariffs on us, the U.S. can open a trade dispute with the WTO, as I understand it, because the EU would not be treating their trading partners equally.

It’s all a big mess, and I don’t see any way out for this government. They have painted themselves into a corner with all their red lines (no ECJ jurisdiction, no hard border in Ireland, no customs union, etc.) and I don’t believe they can deliver what they promised. Let’s see how it goes, shall we?
TTFN.