Sunday 17-04-22 A Snap Election

Here we go for a "snap election" then. On the day that the French go to the polls, it will be approximately seven (?) weeks until we get the same opportunity.

I can't see this as anything other than an opportunistic play by the Prime Minister, who has often accused others of playing political games. She has also promised no early election, on several occasions.

I think she has calculated that if the next General Election were to fall in 2020, then it would basically be an election about Brexit. We won't be done with Brexit by that time, there will still be transitional arrangements in place and the process will still be ongoing. If the election is pushed out to 2022, then there is more chance that the dust will be settling.

However, I can see that she wants a mandate. She became PM last year via an internal Conservative party process, and she hasn't faced the general populace. So it makes sense just to check that she is supported generally. But I think she could see that if she looked at the polls. She could certainly save some money by relying on those rather than a General Election. So far, we've had a GE in 2015, the Brexit vote in 2016, and now another GE in 2017. And what will happen if she is not returned with a larger majority?

It may be that the Tory vote increases within certain constituencies, so that incumbents will see their majorities increase. But in constituencies where a Tory is not incumbent, the anti-Tory vote may harden. If there is a 44% favourable rating for the Tories, it is hard to see how that won't lead to extra seats, but these are strange political times, and I think we in the UK are heading towards becoming as entrenched in our existing views as they are in the U.S. So a vote which is supposed to unite the nation will end up being divisive.

I have seen that T May has called for manifesto ideas, which suggests that she doesn't have any of her own. Which again feeds into the impression that this is an opportunistic plan to capitalise on current national sentiment. Seven weeks is a long time in politics though. and if the various left-leaning parties get their act together, and maybe propose one joint anti-Tory candidate in certain constituencies, the Tories may find it hard going.

And by calling the election now, this may lead to serious losses for Labour, and Jeremy Corbyn may face pressure to resign. But he may not act on that; he seems to be a bit "other-worldly" sometimes. Maybe he would be better off in academia, rather than deep in the cut and thrust of today's politics? I'm not sure.

The Lib Dems should see an increase in seats, which may be a good thing; I quite like the Lib Dems, they may come across like Tories with hearts sometimes, but that is no bad thing. They have made a couple of misjudgements recently though; the most damaging was the student fees. Then there was going into a coalition with the Tories; I don't think that was a bad idea per se, but the trouble was that they were then seen as "Tory Lite", so they suffered because Tory voters voted Tory, and people who would never vote Tory couldn't bring themselves to vote Lib Dem. And so they were decimated in the last GE.

It'll be interesting, that's for sure - and we need a reason to be watching the nightly news. I'm sure Newsnight and Channel 4 News will see an increase in audience share. I hope that people take the opportunity to become better informed, but the trouble is that most of the information we receive will be "spin", that is, information presented in a partisan manner. So information provided by Labour news sources will be intended to denigrate the Tories, and information provided by Tory news sources will be intended to denigrate Labour. And most people will ignore the Lib Dems (and, I hope, UKIP?). This would be a good time to highlight the good work done by Full Fact, they independently check claims made by political parties and news programmes (e.g., Question Time) and provide the full picture. They are worth checking out, and supporting if you can.

TTFN.

Saturday 17-04-21 The U.S. Administration and Syria

(I was billed again by godaddy yesterday for my wordpress site, so I suppose I had better make use of it.)

It was a couple of weeks ago that all of a sudden the news programmes were talking about the possibility of the U.S. Administration bombing Syria. It was definitely mentioned on the BBC World Tonight news programme, and I went to sleep thinking that we were being softened up for the attack, and I thought that probably there would be more "preparation" the next day.

As it turned out though, the bombs were launched overnight, and the first news I heard in the morning was that the bombing had happened. I was a little surprised at how quickly things had happened, but not actually against the bombing happening. One thing that did raise a few concerns though, was how quickly the U.S. Administration had changed its mind. It did seem, only a few days earlier, that it was not minded to punish Syria. And then there was the emotional appeal, about the "beautiful babies", that was another thing. I don't want nations making decisions about whether to bomb other nation states when they are emotional. I want them to sit down and rationally plan for any and every outcome.

And that is where I think that the U.S. Administration erred. Yes, probably something needed to be done. But I heard that the bombed runway was back in action before the day was out. The bombs were not a surprise, and all the planes had been moved to safety. So the net effect was to spend a few million dollars on a nice firework display, so that the U.S. Administration could say "Look! we did something!" And what they actually did was:

1. Annoy Russia, who have been supporting Assad's regime, and

2. Put a very small dent in Assad's military capability.

Assad is the only power in the region which is currently capable of keeping the lid on ISIS, so by attacking Assad, the U.S. Administration is potentially giving ISIS some assistance. The enemy of my enemy is not my friend, and all that. And without any follow-up, or at least none that we can see, it looks like the message that the U.S. wants to send to Assad is that it is fine for him to oppress his own people, just not with chemical weapons. And that is a pretty sad state of affairs from where I am sitting.

TTFN

Saturday 17-04-08 Cud at The 100 Club (Friday 31st March

Last Friday I was up in London, settling into student accommodation at the LSE. I had bought a ticket to see Cud at The 100 Club, and TW & I had talked before about me staying overnight in London. This time I had researched the perfect accommodation, at the LSE near Euston station, for £36 per night (including breakfast) and I was going to make the most of it.

I had booked a half day at work, and I caught the train up to Victoria at just after 1pm. I had my Kindle for company in a mostly empty carriage, which suited me fine. I was a little worried that I had the wrong ticket, because I was on the Gatwick Express, but it was okay. I arrived in London just before 3pm, and decided to get the tube to Oxford Circus - then I could find the venue, and walk from there to the LSE. It was a lovely sunny day, and I was in a great mood. I found the club easily enough, it was actually on Oxford Road, east though, just before Tottenham Road. It’s a bit seedy and rundown there, I suppose, but Crossrail might rejuvenate the area in a few years. I walked to the halls, and checked in. I laid down for a bit but was too hyped up to really rest.

It got to 5pm and so I headed out, determined to make the most of my London visit. I hit a number of pubs and sampled the real ales. I had a pint in a pub, The Ship on Wardour Street and was reminded of the Underworld song Stagger, with the lyric “I saw you shopping in Europa on Wardour Street, not phoning back”. The beer was good too... After a couple of pints I thought it would be wise to eat something so I popped into Gourmet Burger Kitchen on Berners Street - it’s good to stick with what you know, sometimes…

Then it was time for the gig, so I wandered around the corner to the venue, showed my ticket and went downstairs into the hallowed 100 Club. It’s a nice venue, the pints were cheap, and the layout is more wide than it is deep, if that makes sense; there were seats at the side of the stage and there was no backstage area, so the musicians have to walk through the crowd to get on stage. Which is nice because it feels as if you’re close to the band(s) wherever you are in the venue.

The support band were a Surrey/Sussex combo called La Flamme, they had an energy about them, and some good songs, and they acted as a good warm-up for Cud. I’ve been quite impressed with their warm-up bands, especially Sheen who supported them at the Garage a couple of years ago. Anyway, La Flamme (pronounced “flame”) did their stuff, thanked Cud for inviting them, and then departed.

It was time for Cud. Cud are a great band live, and tonight they were performing all their singles. With a career stretching back to 1988/89, there were a few they had to get through! Cud gigs are a great thing, as far as I am concerned; a way to get together in a group and share a common appreciation of some good music. The rhythms are stirring, the tunes are memorable, and the lyrics are other-worldly on occasion. But it’s not really about reproducing the songs note for note; Carl delivers the vocals differently live, and really hams up the role of lead singer. Mike and Will take their turns in the spotlight as well, and it’s more a celebration than anything else. You recognise the opening notes of a song and suddenly you’re dancing, which can be a bit difficult in a sold-out venue when you’re all jammed together. But I managed it; probably the beers helped. I was standing at the back (which as I mentioned, wasn’t really far back) and I was behind some tall guys. I realised that people in front of them were shorter, so I pushed past them closer to the stage. I had a great view, I was dancing, and it was great.

After they finished, I was in no rush to leave, so I got another beer, and actually had a chat (more likely a drunken burble) with Will the bassist. I presume he is used to mumbled non sequiturs, but he seemed happy to chat, so that was good. I bought a tshirt, which I don’t normally do, but since the pints were under £4 each, I had a few spare pounds. Then I headed out into the night to see what London was about.

Actually, the area I was in, at the east end of Oxford Street, was closing down. One pub had stopped serving, and the pub I managed to get a drink in was about to close. So it was a quick pint of London Pride and then on. I was told that there was a late-night drinking establishment called Nordic, so I headed there. I bought a pint, but it wasn’t my thing so left pretty sharpish, and headed back to my room. And that was last Friday night, done and dusted. The only last bit of business was the breakfast the next morning, which was delicious. It was a full English, but served buffet-style, so if I'd thought it through, I could have had double helpigns. I didn't though, one plate full was enough to set me up for the day and the journey home.

TTFN.