19-10-30 Wednesday I - General Election 2019

So, finally the dam of pent-up energy has burst, and the House of Commons has voted for a General Election. It’s been a while coming, and a number of observers predicted it would happen earlier than this. The Lib Dems and the SNP had finally realised that there was no way to get a second referendum in this session of Parliament, and so they have voted to start over. Johnson (the PM) wants an election because he thinks he can get a majority for Brexit (as did Theresa May before him), and Labour always seem to be in campaign mode, although they weren’t exactly chomping at the bit to get into this race.

The date of the election is set to be 12th December. This is regarded as a “snap election”, because the time for campaigning is comparatively short, but I can guarantee that by the 11th of December it will feel like the election has been the only topic of conversation for *years*.

A relatively uncontroversial opinion is that the Lib Dems will pick up a few seats; that’s to be expected, as the Conservatives have been in power now since 2010 (in a coalition to begin with, and then with sole responsibility for governing since 2015) and people like a change from time to time. The SNP may also pick up a couple of seats in Scotland as well, we’ll have to wait and see. I think the Tories may lose a seat or two to the Brexit Party, but I think losses will be limited.

It is interesting that this was one of the main stories published today. Picked up on Radio 4, and repeated on the hourly bulletins. Matt Hancock was also given a roasting by Nick Robinson; asked if he would apologise for not getting us out of the EU by tomorrow (!), quizzed over the whereabouts of the promised social care policy, accused of issuing statements which later turned out to be untrue... The language over the last couple of weeks in the House has been heavily focused on the lack of trust MPs have in Johnson, and I’m sure this will filter through to the media.

Also, because we haven’t had a referendum, this Election will serve as a proxy for a second referendum. Labour’s policy has, I think, been clarified at the perfect time: vote for us and get a second referendum. This is a battle cry that both Remainers and Quitters can get behind. I wouldn’t be surprised if this is an effective campaign message for them.

In Worthing, our sitting Conservative MP had a majority of 12,000 in the 2017 Election. I wouldn’t be surprised if that is vastly reduced, but I expect he will be returned to Parliament after the December vote. He might find himself in a party of reduced numbers though. This is going to be interesting.

TTFN.

Sunday 17-04-22 A Snap Election

Here we go for a "snap election" then. On the day that the French go to the polls, it will be approximately seven (?) weeks until we get the same opportunity.

I can't see this as anything other than an opportunistic play by the Prime Minister, who has often accused others of playing political games. She has also promised no early election, on several occasions.

I think she has calculated that if the next General Election were to fall in 2020, then it would basically be an election about Brexit. We won't be done with Brexit by that time, there will still be transitional arrangements in place and the process will still be ongoing. If the election is pushed out to 2022, then there is more chance that the dust will be settling.

However, I can see that she wants a mandate. She became PM last year via an internal Conservative party process, and she hasn't faced the general populace. So it makes sense just to check that she is supported generally. But I think she could see that if she looked at the polls. She could certainly save some money by relying on those rather than a General Election. So far, we've had a GE in 2015, the Brexit vote in 2016, and now another GE in 2017. And what will happen if she is not returned with a larger majority?

It may be that the Tory vote increases within certain constituencies, so that incumbents will see their majorities increase. But in constituencies where a Tory is not incumbent, the anti-Tory vote may harden. If there is a 44% favourable rating for the Tories, it is hard to see how that won't lead to extra seats, but these are strange political times, and I think we in the UK are heading towards becoming as entrenched in our existing views as they are in the U.S. So a vote which is supposed to unite the nation will end up being divisive.

I have seen that T May has called for manifesto ideas, which suggests that she doesn't have any of her own. Which again feeds into the impression that this is an opportunistic plan to capitalise on current national sentiment. Seven weeks is a long time in politics though. and if the various left-leaning parties get their act together, and maybe propose one joint anti-Tory candidate in certain constituencies, the Tories may find it hard going.

And by calling the election now, this may lead to serious losses for Labour, and Jeremy Corbyn may face pressure to resign. But he may not act on that; he seems to be a bit "other-worldly" sometimes. Maybe he would be better off in academia, rather than deep in the cut and thrust of today's politics? I'm not sure.

The Lib Dems should see an increase in seats, which may be a good thing; I quite like the Lib Dems, they may come across like Tories with hearts sometimes, but that is no bad thing. They have made a couple of misjudgements recently though; the most damaging was the student fees. Then there was going into a coalition with the Tories; I don't think that was a bad idea per se, but the trouble was that they were then seen as "Tory Lite", so they suffered because Tory voters voted Tory, and people who would never vote Tory couldn't bring themselves to vote Lib Dem. And so they were decimated in the last GE.

It'll be interesting, that's for sure - and we need a reason to be watching the nightly news. I'm sure Newsnight and Channel 4 News will see an increase in audience share. I hope that people take the opportunity to become better informed, but the trouble is that most of the information we receive will be "spin", that is, information presented in a partisan manner. So information provided by Labour news sources will be intended to denigrate the Tories, and information provided by Tory news sources will be intended to denigrate Labour. And most people will ignore the Lib Dems (and, I hope, UKIP?). This would be a good time to highlight the good work done by Full Fact, they independently check claims made by political parties and news programmes (e.g., Question Time) and provide the full picture. They are worth checking out, and supporting if you can.

TTFN.