So, finally the dam of pent-up energy has burst, and the House of Commons has voted for a General Election. It’s been a while coming, and a number of observers predicted it would happen earlier than this. The Lib Dems and the SNP had finally realised that there was no way to get a second referendum in this session of Parliament, and so they have voted to start over. Johnson (the PM) wants an election because he thinks he can get a majority for Brexit (as did Theresa May before him), and Labour always seem to be in campaign mode, although they weren’t exactly chomping at the bit to get into this race.
The date of the election is set to be 12th December. This is regarded as a “snap election”, because the time for campaigning is comparatively short, but I can guarantee that by the 11th of December it will feel like the election has been the only topic of conversation for *years*.
A relatively uncontroversial opinion is that the Lib Dems will pick up a few seats; that’s to be expected, as the Conservatives have been in power now since 2010 (in a coalition to begin with, and then with sole responsibility for governing since 2015) and people like a change from time to time. The SNP may also pick up a couple of seats in Scotland as well, we’ll have to wait and see. I think the Tories may lose a seat or two to the Brexit Party, but I think losses will be limited.
It is interesting that this was one of the main stories published today. Picked up on Radio 4, and repeated on the hourly bulletins. Matt Hancock was also given a roasting by Nick Robinson; asked if he would apologise for not getting us out of the EU by tomorrow (!), quizzed over the whereabouts of the promised social care policy, accused of issuing statements which later turned out to be untrue... The language over the last couple of weeks in the House has been heavily focused on the lack of trust MPs have in Johnson, and I’m sure this will filter through to the media.
Also, because we haven’t had a referendum, this Election will serve as a proxy for a second referendum. Labour’s policy has, I think, been clarified at the perfect time: vote for us and get a second referendum. This is a battle cry that both Remainers and Quitters can get behind. I wouldn’t be surprised if this is an effective campaign message for them.
In Worthing, our sitting Conservative MP had a majority of 12,000 in the 2017 Election. I wouldn’t be surprised if that is vastly reduced, but I expect he will be returned to Parliament after the December vote. He might find himself in a party of reduced numbers though. This is going to be interesting.
TTFN.
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