19-06-11 Tuesday - Tory Leadership Race

Oh, God. The Tory leadership race is on, and it is not going well. There are no candidates I would like to see ascend to the throne of Tory leader and Prime Minister. It is existentially depressing; possibly moreso than Brexit itself.

There are ten people willing to step into Theresa May’s shoes, seemingly unaware that the situation and the maths hasn’t changed. There is no way to bend the EU to the will of the UK; the EU will protect the single market and the customs union before giving any ground to the UK. So the only avenue open to us, if we still want to leave, is to agree to the Withdrawal Agreement which has been negotiated under the reign of one T. May. The question is:- will a change of leader persuade any MPs who haven’t yet voted for the WA to change their mind? I think it unlikely.

I was happy to see Cameron take over leadership of the Tory party back when he did, he looked like a breath of fresh air. And, for a time, I think he was. So I am not against the Tory party in toto. But to be frank, I think at the moment they are a busted flush; they are in a minority, they are trying to push Brexit through an unwilling House of Commons, and the new leadership candidates are making promises they won’t be able to keep in the divided situation they will find themselves in, once they are installed in No. 10.

I for one am disappointed that the new PM will be appointed by 160,000 or so Tory voters. I know that those are the party rules, but I don’t see that the new PM will be able to go on for any time without provoking a vote of No Confidence, which will trigger a General Election. And, as the candidates themselves have mostly acknowledged, if they go to the country before completing Brexit, they will be annihilated. Voters on the right who think they are not enacting Brexit correctly will drift to the Brexit Party, and voters in the centre who are anti-Brexit will vote Lib Dem, leaving the Tory party with only a thin slice of the electorate thinking that they are doing the right thing. Not that the Labour party will do any better. A recent poll shows that Theresa May, even though she is leaving in disgrace (pretty much) is still seen as a better PM than Jeremy Corbyn.

Anyway, there aren’t any rays of light among the leadership runners and riders. The only possible reason to be optimistic is that we might see some infighting among them. And if they tear strips off each other, then they can only damage themselves and harm their credibility in the eyes of the public. So there is that.

Anyway, I don’t know if this competition will go the distance, but it’s gripping, and I’ll be watching til the end.

TTFN.