Wednesday, July 19, 2017

Wednesday17-07-19 Bremain?

So here is an improbable scenario...

David Davis and his Brexit negotiations go nowhere. The EU negotiation team stick to their guns and insist that there are four indivisible pillars founding the EU:- freedom of movement of goods, services, capital and labour. And the ECJ has to have a final say on the proposed deal, as well as being the final arbiter over the EU citizens remaining in the UK.

Furthermore, the EU deny any possibility of sector by sector industrial talks, so the car industry or the finance industry won't get special treatment. It seems that all the UK attempts to get any favours out of the EU are destined to fail. It looks like we are going to leave the EU with no deal, on WTO terms.

Keir Starmer and the Labour party get an update in Parliament as to the progress or lack thereof in the talks. Starmer has already advised that the deal needs to be "at least as good as the existing deal" - the update from Davis indicates that there is no hope of that. Corbyn has always been in favour of Brexit, but not dogmatically so; he thinks that if it can be a good thing, it should be pursued. But this looks like a bad deal.

And so, Labour switch their position. The Brexit which the Conservatives are trying to negotiate is going nowhere, time is running out, and tempers are running high. Labour are in front in the polls, so if a general election were called, they would win. All of a sudden, with their clear different position on Brexit, they attract even more support than they currently have.

With the change in position, proceedings in the House of Commons become more fraught, and there is a vote of no confidence. The government is dissolved, and a General Election is called. Labour get in on a mandate to cancel Brexit and so Article 50 is revoked.

Wishful thinking, I suppose.

TTFN.

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