It’s not good, is it?
The one thing to remember is that we are leaving the EU on the 29th March. If nothing happens, if there is no intervention, we leave by automatic application of law. All that needs to happen is – inaction, indecision, inertia.
May’s Withdrawal Agreement shouldn’t get passed, going on the present numbers. Unless a hell of a lot changes, the House of Commons won’t vote for the deal as it exists. And the EU won’t renegotiate it, since the negotiation phase is complete. May might get some warm words, but that won’t change the legal text of the Withdrawal Agreement (WA). And the “backstop” part of the WA is unacceptable to most MPs. The customs union and single market aspects of the backstop mean that we will be “tied forever to the EU”, at least until the future trading arrangements are set. The trouble is that trading arrangements can take years to agree, and there are specific dates at which we enter the backstop. We could be in the backstop indefinitely.
If May’s deal is voted down, there is no real alternative. Labour will probably call for a vote of No Confidence in the government, and hope to bring about a general election, but since they are still apparently pro-Brexit, I don’t see them being particularly successful. Probably smaller parties – i.e., the Lib Dems and the Greens – will pick up more votes than normal, but if Labour don’t change then they could be locked in a death spiral with the Tories, and end up with another hung parliament.
The House of Commons can keep voting down each proposal brought forward by the government, but what is really needed is for the govt. to bring forward legislation which Parliament can approve. But it is unlikely that the govt. will propose a second referendum, or a revocation of Article 50. May’s approach to government is not collegiate or inclusive, and she is not persuading the majority of MPs that her way is the right way. There has already been a party vote of No Confidence triggered by the members of the ERG, but they won’t vote with Corbyn if & when he triggers a vote of No Confidence in Parliament. Party above all else, after all.
Before Christmas I was quite optimistic that something could be done to mitigate the worst of Brexit. Now, however, I am fully expecting the worst. And I don’t think we’re going to like it.
TTFN.
No comments:
Post a Comment