I suppose he deserves a mention. It's not every day that the U.S. gets a new president, and it's certainly not every day that the pollsters get it so wrong. But this is subsequent to Brexit, where the pollsters were also wrong, and you would think that they might be careful about their prognostications.
A couple of weeks ago, the polls were very close, and our old friends PaddyPower were offering odds on Trump of 5-2. I thought at the time that the odds didn't reflect the close nature of the election, and so I wagered an almighty 40p on a victory for the Trumpster. As we got closer to the polling date, I did think that I wouldn't see that 40p again, since all the indications were that Hillary was going to win.
I had been out on the Tuesday night, seeing Such Small Hands again, and I got home having had a few beers, and I picked up a couple more on the way home. So you might say I was well-lubricated. I went to bed after the votes started coming in, so I guess that was about midnight or shortly after; Trump was already 26 electoral votes to 3. Then I woke up at about 3 in the morning, and checked my phone - Trump was still in the lead. PP were offering me 80p to cash out; I could have doubled my original stake and stopped worrying and gone back to sleep. TW roused, and she suggested I could put the radio on, so of course I did. There were some big states still to declare, and it wasn't all cut and dried. But as time went on, the amount PP were offering to cash out kept increasing. By 4:30 it was up to over a pound. I do realise that is small beer to most people, but it's not about winning big for me; it's about seeing if I was right. Anyway, remember that I'd had a beer or two and not gone to bed until after midnight? Being awake from 3am to 5am didn't help me rest, especially with such earth-shattering events going on. So Wednesday at work was a bit of a struggle. But there were others who were in the same boat, so I didn't feel as bad as I should have done.
I reckon that the Americans have the gap between the election and the actual swapping of the Presidential Office to mitigate any shock or surprise at the outcome of the election. There are currently demonstrations going on in the U.S. against Trump, but I think that his wilder suggestions will be kicked into the long grass by Congress and the Senate. He is already suggesting that he won't totally dismantle Obamacare, which was one of the cornerstones of his election campaign, and it is my guess that as time goes on, more of those pre-election promises will go by the wayside.
The electorate here in the UK and over there in the U.S. are becoming disillusioned with the political class, and it is showing. I think that in future politicians will need to do things differently, in order to ensure that the electorate are kept satisfied. There are elections in Germany and France next year, and it wouldn't be surprising if those threw up some unexpected results.
In the end, my bet of 40p at 5/2 returned me £1.40, which was much-needed because my sports betting had been woeful. I also won on Brexit, although that was a bit more impressive - £2 at 7/4 returned £5.50. The MiL had a fiver on the same and took home £15, which was nice. So overall I've bet £2.40 on political events and won £6.90.
I don't think Trump will be the nightmare that some people are fearing, but I wouldn't have voted for him. I think his agenda will be mostly domestic, so we might not hear from the U.S. again until 2021. And if that is the worst outcome, I think that is one that I can live with.
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